中国数万亿美元外汇储备的救星:朱长虹！引导外管局好回报

谁是中国数万亿美元外汇储备的救星？朱长虹！他是现任外管局SAFE首席投资长CIO，为人低调到只有学生时代的照片，媒体将他称为“隐形人”！他20岁时赴美学量子物理学后做债券交易员，他最终加入投资巨头PIMCO，成为著名投资者格罗斯Bill Gross的得力助手！被外管局局长招至麾下后，说服上级扩大对美国公司债、股票和房地产的投资，而不是上任前外管局依赖于对美国国债的保守乏味的投资！在他指导下，外管局去年的投资回报表现非常不错。
朱长虹是真人才，实现了他的美国梦，在加州买了两处豪宅，并在拉斯维加斯买了一套公寓，财务早就自由了。但2009年底他离开了这样的生活，回到中国，成为外管局储备管理司的首席投资长。外管局局长易纲亲自用“千人计划”将他招至麾下，实现自我价值和回报祖国的信念了！希望有一天帮中国贫穷的老百姓实现中国梦！

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朱长虹：投资中国外汇储备的隐形人
Wall Street Journal  华尔街日报
2013年 07月 17日

今年初在中国一个政府部门的年会上，一位名叫朱长虹的前债券交易员因为在投资全球最大的现金储备上的明智选择而大受赞赏。这个现金储备就是中国规模3.5万亿美元的外汇储备。

据了解此次年会情况的人士透露，朱长虹的同事们专门改编了一首歌颂毛泽东的著名革命歌曲来打趣地称赞他，他们唱到：“东方红，太阳升，中国出了个朱长虹…他是外管局的大救星。”外管局全称中国国家外汇管理局，隶属于中国央行，负责管理中国的外汇储备，是全球最有影响力的投资者之一。

在欧洲仍在寻求资本资源以及发达国家担心资源繁荣显现消退迹象之际，朱长虹是配置这一高达数万亿美元资产的关键人物。但尽管负责把握中国实现外汇储备多元化努力的方向，并且获得了相当不错的回报，外界对他的了解却很少；中国媒体将他称为“隐形人”。

现年43岁的前物理学家朱长虹曾有过多次出人意料的职业生涯转型。他在20岁时从贫穷的安徽省来到芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)学习量子物理学，但之后他放弃了前途光明的学术生涯，成为一个债券交易员，据知情人士说，他最终进入安联保险公司(Allianz SE)旗下投资巨头太平洋投资管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.)，成为著名投资者比尔·格罗斯(Bill Gross)的得力助手.

在那里，朱长虹实现了他的美国梦，据美国房地产纪录显示，他在加利福尼亚买了两处豪宅，并在拉斯维加斯买了一套公寓。但2009年底他离开了这样的生活，回到中国，成为外管局储备管理司的首席投资长。

熟悉他的人都称他为书呆子，朱长虹太过低调，以致于中国网民纷纷抱怨在网上找不到他的一张照片。据熟悉外管局运营的人士说，在外管局，他只把自己当做是为该部门进行投资决策的一个专业团队中的一员。

但他已经在外管局有所作为，他说服上级扩大对美国公司债、股票和房地产的投资，而不是依赖于对美国国债的保守但乏味的投资，美国国债是朱长虹上任前外管局的标志性投资。

据熟悉他工作的人说，外管局在去年下半年投资了日本股票，后来日本股市大幅上涨，这体现了朱长虹更为激进的投资风格。但相关投资规模不得而知。

外管局的新闻官员拒绝为这篇文章置评。

尽管有那些押注，但美国货币政策料将发生的变化意味着朱长虹的主要目标不是实现创纪录的投资成果，而是如果美国国债价格由于美联储(U.S. Federal Reserve)减少购债而继续下跌，那么他就要努力减少外管局面临的损失。

一位中国官员说，在朱长虹的指导下，外管局去年的表现非常不错。外管局一般不对外披露其投资和业绩情况。

据《华尔街日报》对美国财政部和中国央行数据的分析，2010年6月，即朱长虹刚到外管局后不久，约45%的中国外储（约合1.11万亿美元）投给了美国政府债券。此后，中国对美国债务的整体购买量虽有所增加，但在朱长虹的帮助下，美国国债占中国外储的比例却稳步下降。2012年6月，这一比例降至35%左右，持有量为1.14万亿美元。

此外，朱长虹还增加了外管局对日本股票、欧洲债务和美国企业债券及股票的投资。很难获悉具体的投资情况，但2011年6月至2012年6月期间，中国外储投资于美国企业债务和股票的比例从5%增至7%。

截至今年5月（最近的数据），外管局投资于美国政府债券的外储仍有约1.32万亿美元。分析人士说，这个数字可能低估了中国对美国政府债券的实际持有量，因为北京一直在努力遮掩其投资方式。中国大规模持有美国国债意味着中国外储的价值主要取决于美国利率的变动。

而这反过来又会让外管局受制于料将出现的美联储撤销货币刺激措施的做法，此举会给美国国债价格带来压力。

中国社会科学院高级经济学家、中国央行前货币政策顾问余永定说，朱长虹的努力已经为时过晚。

朱长虹供职外管局之前，曾在美国生活了20年。了解外管局操作方式的人表示，该局局长易纲亲自将朱长虹招至麾下。易纲本人也曾在美国待过多年，曾任印第安纳大学-普渡大学印第安纳波利斯分校(Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis)经济学教授。知情人士说，朱长虹对北京来说是个重大收获。中国“千人计划”为招揽海外人才回国，向他们提供现金奖励和研究资金。

与外管局关系密切的人说，他在外管局担任首席投资长，这个职位听上去是技术性的，但他所做的工作却极具政治意味。首先，朱长虹必须说服他的上级在用中国外汇储备投资时要承担风险，外汇储备被视为国家财富，常常被说成中国劳动者的“血汗钱”。中国规模巨大的主权财富基金中国投资有限责任公司（China Investment Corp.，简称：中投公司）因为2008年全球金融危机之前对华尔街公司的投资出现亏损而在中国受到抨击，这进一步加剧了外管局的压力，外管局不希望自己也面临这样的抨击。

一位与外管局关系密切的人士说，如此一来，外管局试图限制在美国国债以外的投资规模，使其在投资不利的情况下也可以不让公众知晓。

参与其中的人士说，在朱长虹的支持下，外管局很早就成为欧洲金融稳定基金(European Financial Stability Fund)的债券投资者，在那之后经常投资这支救助基金。

投资数额没有披露，但有可能很可观。据中国内外的知情人士说，2012年初欧洲危机加剧时，欧洲官员与朱长虹和其他中国政府官员举行讨论会，内容是如何引起中国对可能用于救助意大利或西班牙的债券的兴趣。

他们说，欧洲官员希望了解，相对于中方可能愿意承担的风险，他们希望投资获得什么样的回报。一位了解谈判情况的人士说，朱长虹明确表示了中方的要求。最终由于危机有所缓解，欧洲没有发行新的投资工具。

朱长虹转变为投资大师这一点依然令许多老熟人惊讶不已。他1995年在芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的毕业论文是《朗道能级内部极化与维格纳晶体》(Inter-Landau Level Polarization and Wigner Crystal)，研究了电子相互强烈干扰并互相缠绕的环境，这是物理学当前的一个热点领域，有朝一日可能会带来量子计算的突破。

朱长虹的论文导师、物理学家维格曼说，有创业欲望的人都去了华尔街。他说，他觉得交易员的快节奏适合这个以前的学生，朱长虹用两年时间完成了论文，是通常所用时间的一半。

维格曼说，我觉得他会干得不错，但做得这么好还是让我惊讶。他来自外国、出身于农村，对于美国文化和美国社会的运作没有任何经验。他的的确确是白手起家。


China's Zhu Changhong Helps Steer Nation's Currency Reserves
July 16, 2013
Nation's Media Call Former Physicist 'Invisible'

BEIJING—At an official Chinese New Year's party earlier this year, a former bond trader named Zhu Changhong was hailed for the smart choices he made investing the world's largest stash of cash: China's $3.5 trillion in foreign reserves.

Tweaking the lyrics of a famous revolutionary song that extolled Mao Zedong, Mr. Zhu's colleagues jocularly lauded him: "The east is red, the sun rises. From China arises Zhu Changhong…he is SAFE's savior," people with knowledge of the event say. SAFE is China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the division of the central bank that manages China's currency reserves and is one of the most powerful investors in the world.

Mr. Zhu is a key figure in the allocation of trillions of dollars at a time when Europe still is looking for sources of capital and developing countries worry that the resources boom shows signs of ebbing. But despite being charged with directing China's efforts to diversify its foreign reserves and earn decent returns, little is known about Mr. Zhu; Chinese media call him "invisible."

A 43-year-old former physicist, Mr. Zhu has made one surprising turn after another in his career. At 20 years old, he moved from impoverished Anhui province to the University of Chicago to study quantum physics, but he then chucked a promising academic career to become a bond trader. He eventually ended up as the right-hand man to investor Bill Gross at Allianz SE's ALV.XE +1.34% Pacific Investment Management Co., the giant investment firm, according to people familiar with Mr. Zhu's work.

There, Mr. Zhu took on the trappings of the American dream, buying two luxury homes in California and a condo in Las Vegas, according to U.S. property records. But he left that life behind to return to China in late 2009 to become the chief investment officer at SAFE's reserves-management department.

Acquaintances refer to him as a nerd, and he is so low-key that China's legions of Internet users complain that there isn't a single picture of Mr. Zhu online. At SAFE, he portrays himself as just one of a team of professionals that makes investment decisions for the agency, according to people knowledgeable about the agency's operations.

But he has made his mark at SAFE, persuading his superiors to invest more in U.S. corporate bonds, equities and real estate, rather than rely on the safe-but-dull investments in U.S. Treasurys that were SAFE's hallmark before Mr. Zhu took the reins.

In a recent sign of his more aggressive style, SAFE bet on Japanese equities in the second half of last year before they rose sharply in value, said individuals familiar with his work, though the size of the position wasn't clear.

Media officials at SAFE declined to comment for this article.

Despite those bets, expected changes in U.S. monetary policy mean that Mr. Zhu's main goal isn't to turn in record results but to try to reduce losses that SAFE would face if U.S. Treasurys continue to fall when the U.S. Federal Reserve reduces its bond purchases.

SAFE "had a very good year last year" under Mr. Zhu's direction, said a Chinese official. SAFE doesn't disclose its investments and performance.

In June 2010, just after Mr. Zhu started at SAFE, about 45% of China's reserves, or $1.11 trillion, was invested in U.S. government bonds, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of U.S. Treasury and Chinese central-bank data. Since then, China's overall purchases of U.S. debt increased, but Mr. Zhu has steadily helped reduce the percentage devoted to Treasurys to around 35%, or $1.14 trillion, in June 2012.

He also boosted SAFE's investments in Japanese equities, European debt, U.S. corporate bonds and equities. Specifics are hard to come by, but between June 2011 and June 2012, for instance, the percentage of Chinese reserves invested in U.S. corporate debt and equities rose to 7% from 5%.

As of May, the most recent numbers, SAFE still had about $1.32 trillion of its reserves in U.S. government bonds. That number may underestimate the actual holdings, analysts said, because of Beijing's efforts to mask how it invests. The immense size of China's Treasury holdings means that the value of its currency reserves is largely at the mercy of swings in U.S. interest rates.

That, in turn, leaves SAFE vulnerable to the expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed, which is putting pressure on the price of U.S. Treasurys.

Mr. Zhu's efforts are "too late to do much," said Yu Yongding, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former monetary-policy adviser to China's central bank.

Mr. Zhu joined SAFE after spending 20 years in the U.S. He was personally recruited by SAFE's director, Yi Gang, who himself had spent many years in the U.S. as an economics professor at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, according to people with knowledge of the agency's workings. Mr. Zhu was a big catch for Beijing, whose "1,000 talents program" offers cash awards and research funds to get back talented expatriates, the people said.

His title at SAFE, chief investment officer, sounds technical, but his work is deeply political, said individuals with close ties to SAFE. First, Mr. Zhu had to persuade his superiors to take risks investing China's reserves, which are viewed as national patrimony and routinely described as xue han qian— money earned by "the blood and sweat" of Chinese workers. Adding to the pressure, China's big sovereign-wealth fund, China Investment Corp., was criticized in China for taking losses on bets on Wall Street firms before the global financial crisis of 2008, and SAFE didn't want to open itself to similar criticism.

As a result, SAFE tries to limit its investments outside Treasurys to amounts small enough to hide from the public in case the bets go bad, said a person close to SAFE.

With Mr. Zhu's endorsement, SAFE was an early investor in bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund, according to those involved, and has invested regularly since then in the bailout fund.

The amounts of the investment aren't disclosed but are likely to be substantial. As the European crisis deepened in early 2012, European officials held brainstorming sessions with Mr. Zhu and other Chinese government officials about how to interest China in bonds that might be used to bail out Italy or Spain, according to individuals inside and outside China who are familiar with the sessions.

Brussels officials wanted to learn what returns Beijing would expect from investments compared to the risk the Chinese might be willing to accept, they said. Mr. Zhu gave "clear indications" of what the Chinese would want, said a person familiar with the talks. In the end, the Europeans didn't issue the new instruments as the crisis ebbed.

Mr. Zhu's transformation into investment guru still surprises some old acquaintances. His 1995 dissertation from the University of Chicago, "Inter-Landau Level Polarization and Wigner Crystal," examined circumstances where electrons strongly interfere and become entangled with one another, a hot area in physics now that may someday lead to breakthroughs in quantum computing.

"Those with an entrepreneurial drive went to Wall Street," said physicist Paul Wiegmann, Mr. Zhu's thesis adviser. He said he thought the fast pace of a trader fit his former student, who finished his dissertation in two years, half the usual time.

"I thought he'd do well, but doing so well, that's a surprise," Mr. Wiegmann said. "He came from a foreign country, from a rural area, with no experience in the culture and the operation of [U.S.] society. He's literally self-made."