问：@Os北纬90:对于第六点，请问没有事实作为依据敢下决策吗？//@星城安雅:⑥决策不从搜集事实开始,而是先有自己的见解。这个怎么讲？决策不是要建立在事实和数据上吗？
唐：因为决策是种判断,是若干项方案中的选择；所谓选择,通常不是[是]与[非]间的选择，最多是#大概是对的#与#也许是错的#间的选择。人总可以找到想找的事实！
有效的决策之意见 Opinions——Effective Decisions
决策定义：管理者识别并解决问题的过程，或者管理者利用机会的过程
- 决策是一种判断，是若干项方案(alternatives)中的选择
- 所谓选择，通常不是“是”与“非”间的选择，最多只是“大概是对的”与“也许是错的”之间的选择
有效的管理者都知道一项决策不是从搜集事实开始，而是先有自己的见解。这与大部分关于决策的著作意见不同
- 人总是从自己的见解开始，所以要求人家从收集事实开始，是不符合实际的。
- 鼓励提出见解，认清其见解经过验证后的结果
先有不同的衡量方法（measurement），后选最适当的作为衡量标准。
好的决策，应以互相冲突的意见为基础，从不同的观点和不同的判断中选择
decisions are made well only if based on the clash of conflicting views, the dialogue between different judgments.
事例一 有意制造反面意见 create dissension and disagreement deliberrately
通用汽车公司总裁斯隆sloan曾在该公司一次高层会仪中的一段话
“诸位先生，在我看来，我们对这项决策已经有了完全一致的的看法了。”委员们都点头表示同意。但是他接着说：“现在，我宣布会议结束，这一问题延到下次开会时再讨论。我希望下次开会时能听到相反的意见，只有这样，我们才能得到对着决策的真正了解。
决策建立在各种不同的意见充分考虑的基础之上
The right decision demands adequate disagreement
事例二 总统获取不同意见的方法 effective presidents had his own method of producing the disagreement
据说美国总统里华盛顿是最不愿意见到冲突和争辩的，希望有一个意见一致的内阁。但是实际上华盛顿在处理重要问题时，常分别去征求汉米尔顿（时任财政部长）和杰斐逊（美第三任总统）的意见，以便取得不同的意见。{他的后辈辈富兰克林.罗斯福将此发挥到极致，向助理要求一句”研究一个问题，但请保守机密”（实际上会很快传遍华盛顿）来获取各种不同意见。
反面意见的三点理由
- 惟有反面意见，才能保护决策者不致沦为组织的俘虏(不为单方利益团体所迷惑）
- 反面意见本身，正是决策所需的“另一方案”
- 反面意见可以激发想象力
有效的管理者会运用反面意见
- 才能避免为“似是而非”的看法所征服
- 才能得到“替代方案”（例，二战德军舒利芬计划流产后，无第二计划>战败）
- 才能在万一决策行不通时不至于迷惘
- 可以启发本人想象力
Opinions Over Facts for Effective Decision Making
http://sourcesofinsight.com/opin ... ve-decision-making/
How do you make more effective decisions? Do you start with the facts? To make effective decisions, you first start with opinions. You gather facts based on what’s relevant. You then test opinions against reality. In The Essential Drucker: The Best of Sixty Years of Peter Drucker’s Essential Writings on Management, Peter F. Drucker writes about making more effective decisions.
Key Take Aways
Here’s my key take aways:
- Know that decisions are judgments
- Start with opinions over facts
- Know the criteria of what’s relevant
- Test your opinions against reality
Decisions are Judgements
Drucker writes that a decision is a judgment:
A decision is a judgement. It is a choice between alternatives. It is rarely a choice between right and wrong. It is at best a choice between “almost right” and “probably wrong” – but much more often a choice between two courses of action neither of which is probably more right than the other.
Executives Who Make Effective Decisions Don’t Start With the Facts
Drucker writes that effective decisions start with opinions:
Most books on decision-making tell the reader: First find the facts. But executives who make effective decisions know that one does not start with the facts. One starts with opinions. These are, of course, nothing but untested hypotheses and, as such, worthless unless tested against reality. To determine what is a fact requires first a decision of the criteria of relevance, especially on appropriate measurement. This is the hinge of the effective decision, and usually its most controversial aspect.
No One Has Ever Failed to Find the Facts They are Looking For
Drucker writes that there are no facts unless you first know what’s relevant:
To get the facts first is impossible. There are no facts unless one has a criterion of relevance. Events by themselves are not facts. People inevitably start out with an opinion; to ask them to search for the facts first is even undesirable. They will simply do what everyone is far too prone to do anyhow; look for the facts that fit the conclusion they have already reached. And no one has ever failed to find the facts he is looking for. The good statistician knows this and distrusts all figures – he either knows the fellow who found them or he does not know him; in either case he is suspicious.
Opinion Comes First
Drucker writes that we start out with untested hypotheses:
The only rigorous method, the only one that enables us to test an opinion against reality, is based on the clear recognition that opinion comes first – and this is the way it should be. Then no one can fail to see that we start out with untested hypotheses – in decision-making as in science the only starting point. We know what to do with hypotheses – once does not argue them; one tests them. One finds out which hypotheses are tenable, and therefore worthy of serious consideration, and which are eliminated by the first test against observable experience.
Test an Opinion Against Reality
Drucker writes that effective people test their opinions against reality:
The effective person encourages opinions. But he insists that the people who voice them also think through what it is that the “experiment” – that is, the testing of the opinion against reality – would have to show. The effective person, therefore asks, What do we have to know to test the validity of this hypothesis? What would the facts have to be to make this opinion tenable? And he makes it a habit – in himself and in the people with whom he works – to think through and spell out what needs to be looked at, studied, and tested. He insists that people who voice an opinion also take responsibility for defining what factual findings can be expected and should be looked for.
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